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A shadowy group which gathers with but one purpose - to analyse, and occasionally mock, the reign of The Diva of the Ditch, His Worship the Mayor, Michael Laws. Fuelled by scurrilous rumour and innuendo, The Watchers shine the unblinking spotlight of scrutiny on the ambitions of the Man Who Would Be King, of Wanganui and beyond...
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It is said that power corrupts, but actually it's more true that power attracts the corruptible. The sane are usually attracted by other things than power. David Brin, American author (1950- )
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- Laws Watch is an evil cabal of single-issue fruitcakes determined to harass the greatest Leader Wanganui has ever had. (Just saving you the trouble of inventing your own invective, Michael).
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44 comments:
Anonymii said (from last post)
These numbers are screwy cos we know that in the last elections about 66% vote and yet this gives 83% will vote - add that to the like and may vote and this is quite out of kilter with reality. Unless Wanganui is motivated to vote this time and that is usually generated by a desire for change!
10:00 AM, September 28, 2007
With 21% in the undeclared or don't know category, and a 4.1% margin of error, there is plenty of room for JM to boost his support. That's assuming Curia's poll is striaght. 81% of the respondents had already voted, which suggests a relatively politically active sample.
7 percent said it was either "fairly likely" or "very likely" they would change their voting preference between now and when the vote ... and 10.1% were unsure if they would while 1.1% refused to answer.
And in the "who would you vote for" question the "don't knows" and "refused to answer" totalled over 20%.
The fat lady ain't sung yet!
Sorry to correct your analysis LW but only 15% of the sample had voted, not 81%. Also those who answered the poll are politically motivated and that is still a fair reflection because those not interested don't vote. It is irrelevant if the turn-out is 63% compared to 83% of the sample who will vote because the election only registers those people who actually vote.
The 83% plan to vote us of those who agreed to take part in the poll at all. Those who refused to take part are less likely to vote, hence why they refused to take part.
I assure you Curia's poll is very straight.
David Farrar
Director
Curia Market Research
One thing the election will prove beyond doubt is that well over 50% of Wanganui voters don't want Michael Laws. He will behave as though he has a majority, totally ignoring the concept of representing the whole electorate. This is not going to help people decide to stay in Wanganui; quite the reverse.
There's another figure missing from the results which could skew the outcome and that's the number of people who refused to take part in the poll at all. I find it very difficult to believe that every eligible person they rang agreed to answer the first question. Which could mean that the Refused to Answer figure is really.....
Thanks David - I guess my concern is that with such a large "don't know, may change their mind" etc number, (is this representative of similar polls or unusually high?) then the result can hardly be representative of what will happen on election day.
I'm not implying any criticism of the poll - just the rush to see it as a fait accompli.
Telephone polls have a typical response rate of 20%.
That means Curia had to go through about 2870 people to get 574 respondents.
Now if they could tell us what those other 2296 people were thinking...
Telephone polling is only as useful as the accuracy of the predictions, which varies from company to company. Bias tends to favour the right, for some reason, cash I guess. Of course Laws is neither right nor left: he's insane.
Anyone know how reliable Curia have been in the past? Mr. Farrar, perhaps? How did you go predicting the last election?
One thing the election will prove beyond doubt is that well over 50% of Wanganui voters don't want Michael Laws.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
You obviously can't count. On the basis of today's poll, Laws will get over 50% of the final vote.
He already has 45.9% of the 79.9% who indicated their voter preference. Undecideds generally fall the way of the polling trend but even if they split 50/50, he would end up with 56% of the vote.
The most interesting part of the poll for me was the split of the Chas Poynter vote - 41% Laws, 32% John Martin, 17% Dahya.
So much for Randhir splitting the vote!
Those who refused to take part are less likely to vote, hence why they refused to take part.
----------------------------
Sorry to have to shatter an illusion Mr Farrar, but refusing to take part in the poll and being less likely to vote are not in any way synonomous. Not in Wanganui. This is a city where people only discuss politics with people they feel comfortable with. Anyone with anything to lose by talking to the wrong person keeps their mouth firmly shut. So refusing to take part in the poll may simply mean they are too scared to voice an opinion. You hadn't thought of that as one of your questions, had you?
Some smarty-pants said:
"You obviously can't count. On the basis of today's poll, Laws will get over 50% of the final vote."
I say:
"All this proves is that over 50% of the people polled, can't think! As more thinking people become disenchanted with the Laws/Vision reign of stupidity and leave Wanganui forever, the percentage of stupid people left in Wanganui will grow and Laws has a better chance of staying on his perch."
GOD HELP WANGANUI. The current Mayor and Vision with their spend-a-thons sure won't."
This must surely be some sort of record for the Publicity Pig mentioning himself in council press releases:
Mayor Michael Laws today officially opened the new Upokongaro jetty.
The PS Waimarie, accompanied by the MV Wairua, carried Mayor Laws and invited dignitaries and guests from Wanganui to Upokongaro this afternoon. After karanga and karakia led by Whanganui Iwi Kaiwhakahaere John Maihi, Mayor Laws stepped ashore from the paddle steamer, cut the ribbon and unveiled a plaque commemorating the occasion.
If only the Farrar press release reported in earlier comments had been true!
GOD HELP WANGANUI. The current Mayor and Vision with their spend-a-thons sure won't."
2:13 PM, September 28, 2007
I think the above comment represents why Michael Laws is winning and John Martin is not.
This is politics, not some university undergraduate essay on ethics. JM is standing for public office with all the associated salary and benefits plus the title of Whanganui's leading citizen.
He has to convince everyone in Whanganui that he is the best not just those that we might approve or those who are friends or acquaintances. I don't disbelieve the poll because it says that John and team have been preaching to their friends but not to the people who will make him mayor.
Dumb people, to quote the above autocrat, deserve to be taken seriously too.
Tee hee - this is good. A you tube video of JOhn Key making a dick of himself waiting for "ordinary" people to talk to him at Porirua Market.
Bet they'd be queuing up to give him a close encounter with a root vegetable if he went back tomorrow, after it slipped out that they're going to screw "ordinary" people over doctors visits ... or that they're going to be flogging off state assets!
youtube.com/watch?v=vTE7EEixKvE
Laws is going to win. The poll is pretty clear on that count. If there was less than a 10 point margin, then its possible that depressed turnout in areas Laws does well in could allow Martin to sneak in, but an 18 point margin is landslide stuff under a First past the post election system.
It is difficult to measure anything from this poll. Just as it is to get the story here - if LW continues to withhold posts then how can we ever have reasoned debate?
Was quite poignant to see the McKinnon-Moores down at the market this morning. They were asking permission to give Laws balloons to children. One can understand their reticence.
what is the point of John M having a blog if he is not going to update it? It is basic errors like this that is letting his campaign down. Does he really want it? Is he hungry enough? Come out and attack Laws. Get stuck in.
Further to anon @ 8.20am.
Did we choose the wrong candidate?
The only opposition candidate who would be “better” in terms of electability would be someone:
1. who isa totally corrupt liar and cheat with a $120 million-plus election budget
2. who is backed by council senior management and CEO handpicked for their willingness to support the candidate’s dirty deeds
3. who has the ability to control a cowed, docile and incompetent newspaper via its editor/senior reporter
I could go on – but I just realised that “candidate” is already out there and doing rather well, thanks very much, thanks to possessing the above qualities in spades.
50% or so are expected to vote. Assuming polls are accurate (which is a stretch with lying Laws on the scene) John Martin needs to motivate a sizable proportion of those would-be non-voters to change their habits and cast a vote for him. In other words get the vote out. So ask your friends if they've voted. Ask that guy at the pub, and all your workmates.
Not an easy ask I'll grant you, but certainly not impossible, and we certainly have the motivation and the voices. Let's get John Martin elected for Mayor!
Spot on. Being angry or disgusted about Laws is not going to save us from the curse of another three years of his sleazy approach to government. Getting active about finding the non-voters is essential.
Laws showed up at Jane Winston with children and smiling partner in tow the day their voting papers arrived. The children went down a treat and everyone filled in their voting papers there and then.
I can’t imagine that manoeuvre working on Putiki Marae though.
I can’t imagine that manoeuvre working on Putiki Marae though.
6:51 PM, September 30, 2007
Maori voter turn out has always been a problem. At the last local body elections, surveys reckoned only 1 in 4 Maori enrolled voters cast a vote.
Hey guys, Mickey’s back ‘on air’ and spouting poetry:
MAYOR’S E-COLUMN
"There is a line in one of my favourite poems that sums up local body elections expertly.
“The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity”
Hey Mickey, strangely enough it’s my favourite poem too. I wouldn’t normally risk being labelled an ‘elitist culture vulture’ and worse by the pig-ignorant low-culture talkback jock populist pretender, but let’s not have that get in the way of a bit of literary ping-pong, eh?
So since you are full of shite and hypocrisy, but as we’re getting all poetic, let’s bring out the line from WB Yeats’ The Second Coming that best describes Whanganui’s imminent predicament:
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be (re)\born?
"Clear by Christmas: that's the aim."
Mayorissimo Laws today vowed to rid Wanganui of scum by Xmas. "We will leave no stone unturned to declare year zero and have the second new beginning in three years" he screeched. "This emergency crisis requires a crisis emergency response, and anyone implying that my negligence and complete disregard for the duties of stewardship has caused the problem in the first place is a fascist nutter!"
Virginia Lake is full of shit, which makes it a perfect analogy for Michael Laws. His corruption is now visible from space.
The cause of the algal bloom was identified months ago. It can be traced directly to the mayoral office.
What the poll shows is that sadly there are just too many stupid rednecks out there braying along with the shock jock.
"Stormwater from the Rotokawau subdivision on St John's Hill continues to overflow into Virginia Lake when there is extreme rain.
Fixing this is one of the matters deferred in Wanganui District Council's 10-year plan."
Why was it deferred?
Why are they calling the green slime in Virginia Lake a "Mayoral Bloom"?
To Anon4.45pm
It was deferred because Julian Reweti estimated the cost of fixing the problem( new pipes to GT Nth Rd) at $4M and this further borrowing would make the LTCCP look bad.
An engineering cockup allowed the street level of Rotokawau to be too low - hence the quick fix solution of the overflow
pipe into the lake.
But subdivision runoff must surely add over time to the high nutrient levels that is the root cause of the algae problem. It cant be best practice - and a future council will have to address this.
It was deferred because Julian Reweti estimated the cost of fixing the problem( new pipes to GT Nth Rd) at $4M and this further borrowing would make the LTCCP look bad.
___________________________________
"Further" borrowing? What other things have the Vision team borrowed money for this term? Why was the kitty so low that Council couldn't afford to perform one of its core functions? Are they expecting the $4M price tag to reduce in the future or something?
and a future council will have to address this.
...............
A future Council led by Laws.
Thankfully!
A future Council led by Laws.
_________________________________
The current Council, led all over the place like you'd expect from a madman, has been negligent in the matter of Virginia Lake. The extra stormwater diverted into Virginia Lake from the Rotokawa subdivision, according to research reported by M. Laws, contains "nutrients" which are insufficient in themselves to have caused the bloom. However, that change to the chemical make-up of the lake has had a profound effect on it, as we can see.
The money which should have been available for this essential infrastructure had already been spent on Vision promotions. It should come as no surprise that a man who uses Wanganui as his toilet leaves pollution wherever he goes.
Time to stop lying, loony.
this further borrowing would make the LTCCP look bad.
_________________________________
Actually, keeping the water clean is a core Council function. The borrowing you mention was for Mickey's grandiose fantasies.
So now, to keep Vision from looking bad, Virginia Lake looks positively mayoral.
Go the Chron! When a survey of candidates' views on the environment puts John M as a clear leader, the Chronic decides to focus on what the council candidates say and relegates the mayoral view to way down in the story. Imagine the headline if their boy Mickey had been way out in front.
Still, it's hardly likely they'll go straight now, is it?
I know none of you are engineers...but I'll try anyway. If Virginia Lake filled up with run-off from Rotokawau then that would be great! The run-off water is much healthier than the Virginia Lake water. It is actually helping the situation. The problem with the lake is that it doesn't flush, there is not enough moving water or rain water. Can you please stop going on about the Rotokawau run off - it's making you look stupid.
You are a loser. Please go and get a life! P.S. I'm not talking about Michael Laws. I'm sure there are much better things to do with your life
Is there any sense at all in the statement that the run of from Rotakawau is helping the situation??? Not that I can see. For years and years there was no problem. The lake, so far as I know, is fed from undergound springs - they crop up all over the hill, just try digging a hole. The run off from the lake used to go down Gt North Road in a pipe after a council years ago closed in the culvert. But now there are too many nutrients settling at the bottom of the lake. They have to have come from somewhere and the run off from Rotokawau is the obvious place. No stormwater is clean, it's contaminated with petrol residue, garden minerals etc etc. Add a slight increase in water temperature, a decrease in the natural vegetation (the lake surrounds have been increasingly tamed over the years) that helped to utilise the nutrients and you get what we've got. No rocket science required to work that out. I can remember when the lake was a very natural habitat. almost untouched, alive with frogs and only fed from the springs and rainwater. It was very clean - with a very muddy bottom. I'm not suggesting we turn the clock back completely, but feeding water into it that should never be going anywhere near it sure isn't helping.
For the poets out there, some words from Bruce Springsteen's latest album seem appropriate:
This whole town's been routed
Which side are you on?
The favoured march up over the hill
In some fools parade
Shoutin' victory for the righteous
But there ain't much here but graves
I know that the condition of Virginia Lake is important to you, but it's not an isolated case. All of the lakes in our region, and in fact most of the North Island, are currently suffering from algal bloom brought on by environmental factors. Obviously the Rotokawau run off is not affecting lakes in Taupo and Waikato - or indeed Westmere Lake, yet they are all suffering from similar afflictions.
Even though the Rotokawau water is scientifically healthier than the water in Virginia Lake, it would of course be better if the small amount of water from Rotokawau didn't go into the lake, but it's really got nothing to do with the problem.
We need to look elsewhere for solutions, and, whether we like it or not, that's at least what Laws and the Council are doing.
I know none of you are engineers
________________________________
I'm an engineer. Are you? Anon at 10:13pm probably isn't, but still manages to talk sense. You don't have to be an engineer to talk sense, incidently.
I know none of you are engineers
___________________________________
A rash statement on two fronts. Firstly, you know no more about who posts here than Michael Laws does about ethics. Second, you'd have to ask an environmental scientist, not an engineer, to explain the situation at the lake. Perhaps you're going to claim that the timing of the bloom coinciding with Vision environmental vandalism is a coincidence, and then we'd have to get a mathematician to explain to you that there's no such thing.
But then you're not here looking for explanations, are you?
Perhaps this very simplified analogy will help the anons at 9.05pm and 12.57am to understand why the run off from Rotokawau may still be contributing to the problem, even though the water in the run off is 'healthier' than the lake itself. Say you have a 10 litre bucket of water with 10 stones in it. ie one stone per litre. Now take another 2 litre bucket with one stone in it At 0.5 of a stone per ltre it has a lower rate than the first bucket. Add the contents of that bucket to the first one. The water will overflow, but the stone will sink to the bottom with the rest. Do that 10 times. At the end of that you will still have only 10 litres of water in your bucket, the rest of the water will have overflowed, but there will be 20 stones at the bottom. You now have 2 stones per litre of water, which is higher than what you first started with. Thats how adding contaminated water to the lake, even if its less contaminated than the actual lake, is making the lake even more contaminated - not less.
The simplified analogy for the Rotokawau run-off is great...however, it doesn't explain the problem with the lakes everywhere else in the district or indeed the North Island. The nutrient build up in all of the lakes is just something that has happened over time. It's not as simple as pointing the finger at Rotokawau and blaming the Council. As nice as that would be.
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