From this angle, it looks smaller Michael...
This interesting analysis, kindly developed and graphed by an astute Watcher, puts a slightly different perspective on the buy-election result which some are calling "a clean sweep" for Vision:
Comments on this post are now closed.
22 comments:
Well, they might have won a seat at the council table but the hearts and minds of Wanganui seem to be going out with the tide.
Vision won. Twice. End of story!
Not the end of the story just the being of the wakening of Wanganui....
How come the Chron reported 1500 people at the mile but Laws says 3000 ... can no one count?
How many were there when Peter Snell ran the mile?
And at the many other events over the years which have attracted top athletes?
Athletic and cycling events at Cooks Gardens have been happening over the years, with some big names attending and huge attendances by out of towners, theres nothing new happening, just a different sponsor,only this time one who demands his money and ego's worth unlike others who have contributed consistently over the years in recognition of the support our community has given their businesses.
And how many of those who actually attended were from out of Whanganui and thus contributed to our economy given the hype of the event as rivalling the Fletcher Marathon?
What was the cost over and above the donated prize money and did the event break even?
Oh and while I am in here, less than 4000 people wanted PBH as a councillor, more than 10000 didnt and voted for someone else, so give us a break on the crowing!!
Don't you guys hate it when the mayor keeps winning, gets great press for Wanganui (see TV3 News on the Mayoral Mile?) and then all you did is just bleat. Wanganui even votes 82% in favour of rejecting the 'h' - ML is more in touch with Wangas than you whiners.
The Dominion-Post (Monday) reported 3,000 at the Mayoral Mile too.
On the Philippa Baker-Hogan result, you're not comparing apples with apples.
In the 2004 elections, there were 30 urban ward candidates of whom 9 were elected. No candidate got more than 50% of the total urban vote and only 2 (Dahya and McKinnon) got more than 40%.
In the 2006 by-election, there were 8 urban ward candidates of whom one was elected. So, mathematically, she had a much harder time getting votes than all the successful 2004 candidates.
It should also be noted that Baker-Hogan finished 1400 votes ahead of the second place-getter (Anderson) so that's a good margin.
I did some research on this just to provide some balance to the current discusson.
The council voted $5000 towards the mile but I now wonder what it really coast?.
Re Snow's comment
I was there on the night and I would guess that the crowd was somewhere betweeh 1500 and 3000.
The big race was wonderful- but I'm an athletic's nut - I would'nt go and watch a motorsport event.
As an athletics promotion it was a much needed, well run, and exciting night. It will be even better as part of the Masters Games. As a mass participation event that is touted to eventually rival the Fletcher Marathon, it was a bit of a flop, so it can't be justified on economic benefit grounds. Mass events need the potential for entering relay teams( 14,000 in the around Lake Taupo Challenge), and of course it must be challenging physically, so travelling to Wanganui to run 4 times around Cooks Gardens has'nt much appeal. I did'nt get there early enough for my agegroup - but Lynne and I were the only spectators in the main stand to watch 11 starters in the mens 35-44 age group.
I look forward personally to next years event- so I hope that the Mayor's salary get's increased.
Oh dear, looks like the good Dr Warburton has confiscated the keys to Michael's mayoral bulldozer. It would have been good to have been a fly on the wall during THAT discussion.
Oh dear, looks like the good Dr Warburton has confiscated the keys to Michael's mayoral bulldozer. It would have been good to have been a fly on the wall during THAT discussion.
11:19 AM, February 14, 2006
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Can someone explain this posting to me? And isn't 11.19 in the morning a bit early for this poster to be already on the juice??
The council DIDN'T vote $5,000 towards the event. It didn't cost the council anything but on the media coverage and enjoyment received, I hope they invest next year.
To Rob Vinsen - I ran in the family age group and it was magic for the kids. You can see the potential in this event and the mayor did a bloody good job. I hear that he's standing again and he has my vote and my wife's on the basis of Saturday alone.
Good point anon (8.19am) - had not thought of it like that. For the urban ward in 2004, a candidate has a 30% chance of getting elected. In the by-election that chance was 12.5%.
You would need to factor Baker-Hogan's votes by 2.2 to get her 'real' 2004 result.
3800 x 2.2 = 8360 votes.
That would have made her the top-polling candidate in 2004.
Allan Anderson would still not have been elected because 2400 x 2.2 = 5280 votes and the least polling successful candidate was Sue Westwood (5592 votes).
Apply a little statistics and you get the real comparison between 2004 and 2006.
Hey Snow,
You lost!
Sucker!
To Rob Vinsen:
Can't work you out fella. Had you pegged as a right-winger which is why I've never voted for you and when I saw your posting on Mark Simmonds I voted elsewhere but can't figure you out. This cove in Chas office is a right wing dream so why do you hate him so much?
Anonymous said...
Oh dear, looks like the good Dr Warburton has confiscated the keys to Michael's mayoral bulldozer. It would have been good to have been a fly on the wall during THAT discussion.
11:19 AM, February 14, 2006
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Can someone explain this posting to me? 5:19 PM, February 14, 2006
Goodness me. We have a political ingenue, or is it a chameleon, in our midst.
Turn to page 3 of today's Chronicle for a story that breaks the mould of constant chronic genuflecting towards divsion. It's well buried, perched on the bottom advert.
It quotes our CEO telling the old folks forum that there will be no demolishing of buildings in Queens Park (ie the museum) and that the council's focus is compliance.
Contrast this with the boy mayor's pre-Xmas rant about how the museum building was a dog that should be bulldozed to make way for a museum/library monument to said boy mayor.
It's clear that while Mickey thought he had a tame CEO (presumably because he had lots of dirt on him), said CEO has an eye to the main chance and knows he'll be out on his ass if the mad mayor continues on this tangent.
Que? We're not in Barcelona here.
I have to agree with the assessment of our mathematician poster. It is harder to get votes in a single versus eight scenario than in a nine versus thirty.
For a start you have more losers in the 30 so that cuts your odds and apart from Bren the Bible-Basher and Cleopatra Chandra the candidates were of a good quality. Rana Waitai is the best maori candidate in two decades but what's the story circulating that Alan Andersen had booked out the Cossie Club for his Saturday night celebrations?
Re Anon 6.50pm - I may criticize some of his actions, but there is no way that I "hate him". In fact, there is a lot about Michael Laws that I admire, especially his communication skills. The problem with Michael is not so much what he does but how he does it. It's new to Wanganui local body politics to personally attack and denigrate, it's the sort of thing that has been the hallmark of government politicians. I have been disapointed by the local councillors who ,although they have expressed a viewpoint privately, they have been unwilling to challenge the Mayors spin publically.. That is why I had initially felt that I would vote for Mark, but I became disillusioned with the campaigning efforts of nearly all the candidates - too late and too little, and eventually voted for another candidate. Phillipa was the dream candidate , world sporting champion, mother of two, health board experience ( and a pretty good person also) so I always felt she would win unless a candidate could campaign well enough to polarise the anti Vision vote. I think they campaigned poorly, but realistically as well as their funds would allow them.
No, I dont descibe myself as either a left or right winger. I think local body politics are about issues, researching those issues , and giving people information , not about spin and populism, and that 's where Mayor Michael and I are conflicting.
I cant help thinking how great Michael Laws could be as a Mayor if he would curb his divisive behaviour and let his charm skills blossom.
I think that what the graph is based on is comparing Laws’ share of the mayoral vote with B-H’s share in the by-election. Both were contests with split fields and strong candidates, and both involved voters making just one choice. So surely this is a more meaningful comparison.
Laws (Vision) spent loads of money and traded on his “celebrity profile”, ditto B-H (Vision). He got 44% of the vote, a year or so later, she could only manage $26%. End of story!
Did anyone go to the coctail party on Tuesday?
what's the story circulating that Alan Andersen had booked out the Cossie Club for his Saturday night celebrations?
7:49 PM, February 14, 2006
Poor Allan. He'd have been disappointed that even Michael's gracious gesture in turning over his River City Press front page advert space didn't work for him. But then of course Bob Walker (aka Bob the real estate guy) did the same for B-H.
Post a Comment