Psephologists' paradise

As predicted by Watchers and blog visitors, Phillipa Baker-Hogan has made it over the line to become Wanganui's newest councillor with 3880 votes, 1,411 votes ahead of Allan Anderson.

A very useful chart on the Council's website shows that shows that 5,000 people returned their voting papers within three days of the polls opening.

Two thirds of votes were cast by February 3rd, then not a single ballot arrived for three days. Then over the past five days the remaining third arrived. The psephologists amongst you may care to ponder what drove those spurts of voter interest in a rather dull campaign.

So dull, in fact, that almost half the people who could vote, didn't. Around 15,000 ballots were returned from some 27,044 eligible voters. And that's counting the 199 that were blank and the 40 informal.

The Diva's pick to win, Chandra Osborne, came a very distant 7th, beating only Bren Sinclair. So, applying the Diva's Law of Spin, blog visitors - who predicted Ms Baker-Hogan to emerge the eventual victor - can lay claim to better political instincts than the Mayor. (Though as we explained earlier, his prediction was disingenuous and purely designed to manipulate the vote).

Talking of Mr Sinclair, he can claim one resounding triumph - most cost-effective campaign. He told the Chron candidates' meeting that he'd spent just $1 - on petrol to lodge his nomination and attend the meeting. With 188 votes in his favour, that works out to round half of one cent per vote. We're willing to bet Vision's campaign substantially exceeded a $1 for every vote.

It was a clean sweep for Vision, with Alan Taylor being elected onto the Rural Community Board with 869 votes, well ahead of nearest rival Clive Gibbard - despite saying he thought there ought to be less elected representatives in Wanganui. We guess it's a case of "if the trough's there, it might as well be my snout that's in it".

Rural voters had a slightly higher participation rate than their urban counterparts (around 60 percent), though the flow of voting papers shows a very similar pattern.

Meanwhile, over at the referendum, the "H" is out, by a very large margin indeed. Expect reaction to that decision to create a climate of divisiveness - unneccessarily, as noted by Sue Pepperell, Rana Waitai, and this blog, amongst others, but very handy if you're looking to create a smokescreen over what you're up to for the next few months.

Council has been given a mandate to investigate the softening of Wanganui's water supply but been told not to fuoridate it.

The size of Council was a more closely-run issue, but in the end 10,001 said reduce the numbers versus 6,554 who want them kept the way they are. Similarly, abolition of the rural ward won by 8,663 to 7,796.

There's much to be said about all this in coming days, and some of it will no doubt be said here. You are of course welcome to discuss any of the results in comments, but one question from Watchers to start you off: The 1 in 2 who didn't vote: a sign of satisfaction, apathy, or despair?

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