A third half way

Some Wanganui voters are either exceptionally astute or incredibly stupid.

Half way through the period during which voting forms can be returned, and only a third (9742) of those eligible have voted.
That, of course, is more than a third of those who will vote, since there'll always be a percentage of those who simply can't be bothered. Of those almost 10,000 people, there'll be perhaps a few hundred who know one or other of the candidates personally and are convinced they're the right person for the job no matter what the others have to offer. Fair enough.

Then there'll be a tiny percentage of those who've voted on party political lines (the Diva, Bob Walker) or because they've been told for whom to vote (the rest of diVision).

If we postulate that each of the candidates has, say, 100 friends of voting age who know them well, that's 800 voters. Then let's assume that each of those people has sufficient influence over three of their friends to convince them to vote for someone they don't really know, and is motivated enough to drum up support that way. That's 2400 votes accounted for.

So how have the other 7342 people made up their minds? What have they seen that could possibly sway them one way or another? A Phillipa Baker-Hogan sign? A Margaret Campion newspaper ad? Bren Sinclair's wheelbarrow? Either they know something the rest of the city doesn't, or they're playing the exciting new game, "Voting Roulette".

As the Chron mildly notes "There is also the holidaytime factor. The community traditionally is hard to motivate in January which is when candidates cranked up their campaigning and the Chronicle began running profiles and exploring issues. In addition, there is theoretically a dampening effect from having two long weekends (Wellington anniversary and Waitangi Day) within the voting period."

And so deliberately delaying the calling of a by-election till that period is called... anyone?... Yes, Mr Maslin in the back there? No? Repeat after us: gerry-man-der-ing.

The Diva will be relieved to see things are back to normal in the Chron newsroom after that irritating bout of independence over Christmas.

What's more concerning in the Chron's report, however, is that Wanganui District Council electoral officer Noeline Moosman feels she has to "nudge voters into action" when the number of voting papers flowing in takes a bit of a dip.

If the buy-election was happening at a time when most people were focused on politics rather than the beach and the barbeque, and if the candidates were actually giving us any idea of what they stand for, then hurrying voters along might be appropriate.

But when most people would be hard-pressed to name a single policy espoused by each of the candidates, herding an ill-informed population towards the post box with completed voting papers in hand is bordering on irresponsible. Ms Moosman's job is, of course, to ensure a high turnout and thus to see that democracy in Wanganui gets a fair shake. But, like the rest of us, she needs to remember things are never what they seem to be when the Diva's involved.

Having shocked ourselves (and no doubt you, gentle reader) by agreeing with the Diva this week, we're about to strike a second blow: we agree with the Chron. Dave Laurence's story concludes: "Finally, there’s a hypothesis that astute voters won’t complete their voting papers until they’ve seen candidates in action at the Chronicle-organised forum on February 8".

We can only, fervently, hope he's right.

Meanwhile, don't forget to check out LawsWatch's own buy-election poll, and vote if you haven't already.