Five days left...

The question of whether Laws Watchers reflect the rest of Wanganui in terms of their underlying beliefs is an interesting one. Our General Election polls are still running, and will be closed off on Friday around mid-afternoon in order to post final results for your ruminating pleasure prior to the "only poll that matters" (as politicians on a hiding-to-nothing like to remind us).

Courtesy of Molesworth and Featherston (well worth a subscription to the Governor's Edition) we have a "rolling poll of polls" against which to compare Laws Watchers' stated voting intentions. Since laying things out tidily in tables seems to cause all sorts of problems on this site, the following should be read as follows: 6 September national poll, 7 September national poll, 8 September national poll, LawsWatch poll (in purple), number of seats (based on national polling, and assuming the leaders of minor parties hold their seats).

Labour: 40.94, 41.22, 41.54, 53, 51 seats
National: 41.74, 41.30, 41.08, 8, 51 seats
Greens: 5.85, 5.81, 5.74, 17, 7 seats
NZ First: 5.34, 5.27, 5.45, 3, 7 seats
Maori: 1.34, 1.49, 1.70, 5, 2 seats
United Future: 1.46, 1.49, 1.33, 0, 2 seats
Progressives: 0.43, 0.42, 0.35, 0, 1 seat
Act: 1.44, 1.57, 1.68, 0, 0 seats
Destiny: 0.89, 0.95, 0.86, 2, 0 seats

So it certainly seems those who visit are far more left-leaning than the majority of the population. Given that other polls have been answered both by those who've expressed support and by those who've expressed opposition to the Diva, it may be safe to say that the majority of all visitors to LawsWatch are that way inclined.

But the real question of interest will only be answered post-Saturday: whether Laws Watchers / Laws Mobbers are reflective of the rest of Wanganui, at least in their political leanings. So if you haven't already voted, please do so before Friday.

Molesworth & Featherston's commentary on the polls is:

Oh so close between the two biggies, but that's 59 seats for a Labour-Progressive-Green Government needing the support of either the Maori Party , with a likely overhang of at least one seat on current polling, although that's not reflected in our numbers above.

On United Future and NZ First's current position; to open talks with the biggest party (illogical as that is ... shouldn't it be the biggest bloc?) they would be elbowing each other aside to talk.

On the other side of the spectrum, National cannot do it even with both NZ First and United Future - even if their first talks with Labour fail. We wonder if that will make National think again over Act and Epsom, but it is getting very late and is a perilous strategy now.

Of course if National sneaks ahead of Labour by a seat and NZ First and United open talks with them first it could all change again - which highlights the fragility of their logic since they would be negotiating to form a National Government even if more people have declared through their vote that they want a Labour-led one.

Surely if they are genuinely "on the fence" over which party is better and want to reflect what most voters want they should start talks with the bigger bloc, because voters for Act, the Greens and the Progressives - and for that matter the Maori Party - know where their parties stand and which sort of a Government they want.

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