Poll Update #4

If an election were held now, would you still vote for the Diva?

An interesting one, this. As might be expected, the Diva's approach to civic affairs appears to have had a polarising effect.

While four percent of you claimed not to be bothered voting (and with such a demonstrated lack of interest in local politics, presumably come here as some strange form of masochism), the poll seems to indicate that while the first trimester of a Diva-led council has hardened some people's voting intent one way or another, he's also forcing a significant number of people to change their minds - in both directions.

Given the nature of this blog, it's probable that the number of visitors who arrive already opposed to the Diva exceeds those who think he's doing a good job, but of course there's no way of knowing if that reflects the broader community.

That in turn is reflected in the 19 percent who say they voted for him before and would again, while 32 percent say they didn't before and wouldn't at the next election.

What is of greater interest is those who've changed their minds: 19 percent of visitors say they didn't vote for him initially but would now, whilst 27 percent say they did before but wouldn't again.

That would suggest that while supporters or opponents think, respectively, that victory or defeat is assured, there's a fair percentage of people moving from one viewpoint to the other.

And, applying our entirely unscientific weighting formula - that more people arrive here because they're opposed than supportive - would suggest the traffic is fairly even both ways.

But, since we're so far out from an election, and there's no "protest" vote option as there in in national polls - telling the pollster you'll vote McGillicuddy Serious or NZ First just to scare the major parties - it's possible this result includes a portion of people who are shifting one way or the other since they're undecided.

Our conclusion: Both sides of the debate have far more work to do than they may assume to convince Wanganui of the rightness of their positions.

Comments on this post are now closed.